When Elon Musk brandished a sequence noticed at a Republican convention over the weekend, he stated it was coming “for paperwork.” However Democrats in Virginia say his chain noticed might slash Republicans’ possibilities at a special goal: the governor’s mansion in Richmond.
The Trump administration’s Division of Authorities Effectivity (DOGE), an initiative to chop as much as $2 trillion in federal spending led by billionaire Mr. Musk, has promised federal layoffs to attain that purpose. 1000’s of federal workers have already been fired, and extra cuts are coming: A memo issued Wednesday by the Workplace of Administration and Price range and the Workplace of Personnel Administration instructed division and company heads to arrange for “large-scale reductions in power” and to develop reorganization plans by March 13.
And Virginia, one of many few states to carry elections this fall, can be disproportionately affected.
Why We Wrote This
The governor’s race in Virginia is commonly seen as a harbinger of nationwide political tendencies. This yr, the fallout from Division of Authorities Effectivity layoffs is shaking up the race as Republicans attempt to retain energy and Democrats cite surging curiosity.
The commonwealth is house to one of many nation’s largest federal workforces, behind solely Washington, D.C., and California. Many of the state’s federal workers and contractors dwell within the counties surrounding the nation’s capital. However there’s additionally a large navy presence within the southeast nook of the state, which might be impacted by Secretary of Protection Pete Hegseth’s personal current request for price range cuts. Democratic leaders say the layoffs can be felt all through the state, as family and friends members lose their jobs and set off a domino impact by way of Virginia’s economic system, simply because the state’s elections are heating up.
Virginia’s off-year elections are at all times anticipated by politicos who learn the outcomes as a report card on a brand new presidential administration and a bellwether for the next yr’s midterm elections. And this yr the commonwealth will once more be closely analyzed, as Democrats attempt to rebound after a disastrous 2024 election and take again the governorship they misplaced in 2021. That defeat got here, partly, as a result of the Democratic nominee, Terry McAuliffe, underperformed within the northern Virginia suburbs in contrast with former President Biden’s 2020 margins.
With DOGE, Republicans in Washington could have motivated a subset of voters within the neighboring state who might tip the electoral scales in Democrats’ favor. In any case, greater than 144,000 federal workers dwell in Virginia, whereas Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin gained in 2021 by fewer than 64,000 votes.
“We’re so used to speaking about nationwide politics at a 30,000-foot degree the place it’s all theoretical, and we don’t see and really feel the affect,” says Dominic Thompson, government director of the Fairfax County Democratic Committee. “[The firings] will not be only a theoretical factor right here in northern Virginia. There are federal employees in all places. … Each single individual up right here is speaking about this.”
Simply earlier this week, for instance, Mr. Thompson was at Starbucks and stated that he heard his barista speaking about how considered one of her buddies was fired from the U.S. Company for Worldwide Improvement. For Jeff Individual, chair of the Falls Church Democrats, the layoffs have been private: His sister moved her household to Dakar, Senegal, within the fall for a job with USAID. She was formally positioned on depart this week.
On the Arlington Democrats’ February assembly, which their Democratic congressman attended to debate the cuts, near 400 folks – greater than 5 instances the standard crowd measurement – attended both in individual or just about, says Chair Steve Baker. Situated simply throughout the Potomac River from Washington, Arlington is house to about 28,000 federal workers and contractors.
The Arlington Democrats hosted a city corridor for federal employees this previous week at an area library the place they had been invited to share their tales. It was standing room solely with an overflow crowd within the hallway. “This cuts throughout partisan strains, definitely within the suburbs,” says Mr. Baker.
“Federal employees are popping out in droves in search of any sort of help they’ll discover,” says Mr. Thompson. “Our celebration hears them, they usually’ll do not forget that when November comes round.”
“Virginia Has Jobs”
Virginia Republicans are conscious of what the cuts would imply for his or her state: They’ve provided their very own help for employees, whereas additionally exhibiting their help for the Trump administration and DOGE’s efforts.
“I don’t consider that the federal authorities downsizing is improper, and in reality, we have to press ahead and drive efficiencies in our federal authorities,’’ stated Governor Youngkin at an occasion in Tysons Nook on Monday the place he launched a brand new job initiative within the state. “And on account of driving these efficiencies, I do count on that some Virginians will lose their jobs.’’
By way of a brand new web site known as “Virginia Has Jobs,” employees impacted by the “federal authorities transition” can join digital job festivals and apply for unemployment advantages. The location additionally has hyperlinks to LinkedIn and Certainly job listings and ideas for the way employees can replace their resumes. (“Federal resumes are sometimes prolonged. … Purpose for 1–2 pages for the non-public sector.”)
“I’m glad that President Trump is attending to the underside of all of this,” stated Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, who’s working to be the Republican gubernatorial nominee towards former Democratic Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger, at a marketing campaign occasion in Bowling Inexperienced final week. Like Mr. Youngkin, she urged that Virginia’s non-public sector job alternatives might take in the blow.
However Ms. Earle-Sears’ allegiance to DOGE has been challenged. Earlier this week a former Loudoun County delegate, Dave LaRock, filed papers to problem Ms. Earle-Sears for the Republican nomination, promising to create a “VaDOGE” – “a daring initiative” geared toward reducing waste and “lowering paperwork” on the state degree.
Republicans are providing nothing greater than a “ideas and prayers” method, says Susan Swecker, chairwoman of the Virginia Democratic Social gathering. Their response, by way of the Virginia Has Jobs web site, is one thing that “a profession coach could be fired for.”
Democrats have painted Republicans’ response as coldly pragmatic, blindly following the desire of the president. A brand new advert from the Virginia Home Democratic Caucus entitled “Chaos,” which targets 12 Republican-held districts, repeatedly exhibits photographs of Mr. Musk and Mr. Trump. Democrats hope to carry onto, and even construct on, the slim majorities they gained in each homes of the Normal Meeting in 2021, regardless of shedding the governorship.
However Ms. Swecker attributes a lot of Democrats’ 2021 gubernatorial loss to what she calls “the White Home curse.” For many years, the celebration that gained the White Home went on to lose Virginia’s gubernatorial election the next yr, save for 2013 when Mr. McAuliffe, a Democrat, gained his first time period as governor.
Prompting Mr. McAuliffe’s trend-bucking win, says Matthew Hurtt, Chairman of the Arlington County GOP, was the October 2013 authorities shutdown. Due to a price range deadlock in Congress, as Republicans resembling Sen. Ted Cruz tried to defund the Reasonably priced Care Act, the federal authorities shut down for 16 days and about 850,000 federal workers had been furloughed. The shutdown was massively unpopular amongst voters – with 8 in 10 People disapproving, together with a majority of Republicans – and dinged People’ confidence with the GOP. Mr. McAuliffe tied his Republican opponent to the shutdown and gained the race only a few weeks later.
Starkly totally different reactions
However Mr. Hurtt says he doesn’t see the frustration on the bottom towards DOGE cuts like he did towards the federal government in 2013. As a substitute, he says Republicans “are much more fired up” than they had been final yr, when his county celebration raised more cash than some other yr since they began protecting document over a decade in the past.
Earlier this week, Mr. Hurtt requested his e-mail listing of roughly 12,000 recipients throughout Northern Virginia in the event that they, or anybody they knew, had been affected by the cuts. “I bought two emails again in response,” says Mr. Hurtt.
Mr. Hurtt acknowledges, nonetheless, that his cohorts on the Arlington Democrats possible have extra members who’re federal workers. And he’s in all probability appropriate. A 2021 examine from the Nationwide Bureau of Financial Analysis discovered that Democrats make the plurality of all profession civil servants, with a Democratic overrepresentation “in almost each division.” Between 1997 and 2019, round 50% of federal workers had been recognized as Democratic, whereas the share of Republican federal workers decreased from 32% to 26%.
This divide might assist clarify the dramatically totally different responses from native events on the bottom. Whereas the Fairfax County Democrats have been accumulating tales from fired or fearful Virginias by way of their web site, the place a type on the homepage instructs locals to share private tales about how they’ve been affected by “Musk’s mass firings,” their Republican counterparts are of the thoughts that the personnel cuts in Virginia might really assist Republicans.
“The cuts are definitely being felt in northern Virginia … however I believe many extra individuals are having their eyes opened by the waste, fraud, and abuse that Elon Musk has uncovered,” says Katie Gorka, chair of the Fairfax County GOP. “So if something, it’s going to assist us.”
Federal workers submitting for unemployment
And all Republicans warning endurance. November, within the political world, is years from now.
Republican Delegate Rob Bloxom, who represents a part of Virginia’s jap shore, says the present variety of federal workers who’ve utilized for unemployment within the state is someplace between 70 and 300, in keeping with a report he obtained from the Virginia Employment Fee. “Everyone is simply guessing” the true share of Virginia employees who can be affected, he says.
“Is 10% the quantity? Is 50% the quantity? We don’t know. All of that is conjecture,” says Mr. Bloxom. “I believe it’s prudent to pay attention to [the cuts], however I believe it’s untimely to sound the alarm bells and say the sky is falling.”
Mr. Bloxom is the vice chair on an emergency committee created by Democratic Home Speaker Don Scott to “examine and perceive the potential impacts of cuts to the federal civilian workforce” and assess any impacts to the state price range handed by the Normal Meeting final week. Virginia, which depends closely on earnings taxes for its price range, can also be constitutionally required to have a balanced price range. The Normal Meeting might be known as again to go a brand new price range if its projected income streams drop too far.
However he acknowledges that there is also political motivations.
“It’s an election yr, so we may be known as again to maintain the difficulty stirred up and in entrance of everyone,” says Mr. Bloxom.
